originally published in the Daily Nation
Like a great footballer with a bad personality, the Democratic Republic of Congo has always had great potential. And it seems it is now ready to exploit that potential, going by the events of the past year.
After signing peace agreements with more than 18 rebel groups, resulting in relative calm, the government has initiated plans to improve the country’s economy, as well as its relations with Rwanda, its neighbour to the east.
Just last week, the World Energy Council’s manager for Africa, Latsoucabe Fall, announced that the Grand Inga Dam project, which has the potential “to light up Africa”, could be up and running by 2025.
“It’s a great plan for the future,” said an African diplomat in Kinshasa who requested anonymity. “But we’re nowhere near the future.”
Methane gas
In neighbouring Rwanda, which has been at odds with the DRC, there is talk of working together on a range of power-generating projects. In addition, the two countries are working on harnessing methane gas from Lake Kivu to convert it into energy for export.
But for all the lofty talk, there has been little action by the government of President Joseph Kabila. For instance, there are no serious signs of investment in the Grand Inga Dam project.
Things are no better on the political scene, with parliament split over a highly controversial foreign policy. Then there’s the nagging issue of the government’s inability to get former rebel leader Gen. Laurent Nkunda from Rwanda.
The situation has been aggravated by the global economic crisis. Take retrenchment, for instance. While it is true that people in other countries are also losing their jobs, the situation is a lot worse in the DRC.
There have been reports of hundreds, and in some cases thousands, of employees have been laid off by American automobile factories, but in the DRC, about 300,000 miners in Katanga Province alone lost their jobs at the end of last year. This is in addition to 9,000 wood workers in the northern forests.
Few Congolese have jobs, and even fewer make enough money to survive on. Yet it is these very people who are losing their livelihoods. Meanwhile, inflation is rising. At 31 per cent, it is more than double the original government estimate for this year.
The Congolese franc has taken a beating from the major world currencies, and parliament will have to revise its budget for this year. To curb expenditure, the government last month slashed spending on all non-essential operational spending by 50 per cent.
The mining sector, which is the backbone of the economy and earns the government 60 per cent of its revenues, is in decline. And the price of copper, one of the country’s most abundant resources, fell by half in July last year.
Particularly notable is the case of tin, especially cassiterite, which is used in the manufacture of cell phones and computer chips. This much sought-after mineral has been in such high demand that multinational corporations were reported to be enlisting the help of rebels and militia to get access to, and maintain control over, mines.
Indeed, Gen. Nkunda’s offensive in late 2008 as a result of a disagreement over coltan and cassiterite drew the world’s attention to the new conflict over resources. Many multinational companies have now realised that they can no longer do business in the DRC the way they used to.
Traxis SA, a Belgium-based mineral buyer, mostly of tin, suspended its operations in the DRC a fortnight ago as the United Nations began putting pressure on companies to reveal the sources of the minerals they buy. It is a well-meaning move but is unlikely to achieve much.
The saying “one man’s trash is another man’s treasure” is highly applicable in the DRC.While most countries are shunning it, China is making inroads in various sector. A controversial $9 billion mining and infrastructure deal is in the offing, despite criticism from various quarters.
According to the deal, China will build schools, hospitals and roads, among other things, in exchange for concessions on copper, cobalt and tin.
The International Monetary Fund, which the DRC hopes will write off a $10 billion national debt incurred by Mobutu Sese Seko’s regime, is opposed the project, saying it will only aggravate the already cash-strapped country’s economy and paralyse government activity.
Gen Nkunda, a supporter of pro-America Rwanda’s interests, also opposed the deal and almost ousted President Joseph Kabila at the end of last year over the same. It was reported at the time that his forces were trading minerals for money and weapons in the area he controlled in the east.
But with Gen Nkunda now out of the picture, the deal can go on.
Despite these investments, however, the impoverished masses could easily become restive. Worse still, some soldiers in the army, which is knownfor indiscipline, have not been paid for months
Fragile
“It’s a major concern,” says UN spokesperson Jean Paul Dietrich. “No country can afford to do that for long.”
The DRC, long known as a place where it is easy to get rich, is almost grinding to a halt.
Despite the peace agreement with rebel groups, including Gen Nkunda’s National Congress for the Defence of the People, the political and security situation in the east of the country remains very fragile.
For one, the issue of the predominantly Hutu Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda has never been resolved. According to the UN, only 105 FDLR-soldiers (and their families) were repatriated to Rwanda in April, compared with 586 in February, during the height of the joint Rwanda-Congo operations against the Hutu rebels.
Thousands of Congolese and UN forces are currently involved in a new offensive against the Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda in South Kivu, where most of the group’s forces not only operate, but also control trade in key resources.
But few believe that the government will rout the rebels, with many waiting to see whether Rwandan leader Paul Kagame will intervene. Still, there is hope that salvation could yet come from other leaders, like South Africa’s Jacob Zuma, who will be eager to divert attention from himself.
Zuma, who was officially sworn in last Saturday as the country’s fourth president since the end of apartheid, has already taken an aggressive – and politically strategic – stance against Zimbabwe, although he channels much of that policy through the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
During the presidential campaigns in South Africa late last year, Zuma repeatedly called on the Southern African Development Community to take a more aggressive stance on the Zimbabwean crisis, saying the regional bloc had to “force” a solution.
However, he was a lot less passionate about the DRC, although it would have boosted his standing on the diplomatic front.
In contrast, South Africa enjoys cordial relations with Rwanda, which, ironically, went the genocide route as South Africa was ushering in a new dawn.
The two countries have traded places today, with President Kagame widely admired for putting Rwanda on the road to reconciliation and recovery while South Africa’s struggles to clean up a reputation that has been dented by crime, corruption and a lukewarm response to the Zimbabwean crisis.
Other Southern African Development Community countries like Angola and Zimbabwe are much closer and more sympathetic to the DRC.
Instead of thinking simple diplomacy, South Africa been thinking about improving its diamonds industry. And the Grand Inga Dam project could just provide that link to the DRC. Indeed, the dam project is big news there at the moment.
Inga III will connect to the electrical grids of Angola, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa, some of the world’s major diamond — and oil — producing countries.
It is notable, however, that the budget doesn’t include funds to actually light up the homes of the Congolese. “The project’s backers have completely refused to include African civil society in discussions,” says Terry Hathaway of the non-governmental advocacy group, Rivers International.
“The price covers only the cost of the hydropower plant and long-distance transmission lines to Africa’s mining and industrial heartlands,” he explains. “Meaning the project’s electricity won’t reach even a fraction of the continent’s half billion people not yet connected to the grid.”
In the meantime, the Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda problem continues to fester. These rebels have waited 15years, and will happily wait another 15 as they ponder over how to make their way back to Kigali.
In much the same way Rwanda’s current regime was formed in refugee camps in Uganda, so could the Hutu in eastern Congo turn out to be an “inefficient equivalent” notes Gerard Prunier, a researcher on the two countries, who has followed the region’s history for the past 20 years.
“The same will happen with the Hutu,” he says, when the Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda musters the courage to test Rwandan security.
And then Congo’s life cycle will begin again.
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